THE problem for Alex Salmond made clear in these figures is that people think that Scottish devolution works and if they believe that, then why would they want go further by supporting independence?
It is possible that Mr Salmond has made a mistake by opting for a referendum in 2014 – two years away – during which time there will be all sorts of questions arising that could create more doubts about independence.
The longer the debate goes on, the more issues will come up, such as Nato membership, an independent Scotland’s role in Europe and the defence of the country after it leaves the UK. It is possible that the questions surrounding these issues are contributing to the fact that backing for independence cannot get above a third in polls.
What’s also possible is that this could be something that continues and leaves Mr Salmond facing a bigger problem as the referendum approaches. Of course, he is counting on major events such as the Commonwealth Games to help to boost the level of support for independence.
But if the London Olympics failed to bolster support for David Cameron, then it’s possible that the Glasgow Commonwealth Games will fail to deliver increased support for the yes to independence campaign.
When it comes to the question of English attitudes to Scotland and devolution, there is on some levels complete indifference. If we think about how the plight of Rangers Football Club was not extensively reported in England that can give us some idea of what’s at work here.
But at the same time, during this time of austerity that English voters are living with too, some people may perceive – rightly or wrongly – that Scotland is getting more than England on public services spending, for example.
That is what is going on when we see this hardening of attitudes among English voters about Scotland. It could also be something that an unpopular Tory government might try to use in an attempt to cling onto power at a general election.
• Trevor Salmon is professor of politics at the University of Aberdeen