SUPPORT for Scottish independence is continuing to fall, according to the first poll published since the historic “Edinburgh Agreement” was signed this week paving the way for a referendum.
• Support for independence down 9% since January according to Ipsos Mori poll
• Women and voters from affluent areas least likely to vote for independence
• SNP conference begins in Perth this week
Only 30% of Scots back leaving the UK according to IPSOS Mori, with support for remaining in the UK twice as strong (58%). The news will come as a blow as the SNP heads into its conference this weekend in Perth.
Only 12% are undecided, among those who are certain to vote.
It means backing for separation is down five percentage points since the last poll in June and nine points since January. Support for the Union has increased three points since June and eight points since January.
Breakdown
Support for independence is highest among those living in Scotland’s most deprived areas (43%), men (37%) and those aged 35-54 (35%).
Conversely, women (24%), those aged 18-24 (27%) and 55+ (27%), and those living in Scotland’s more affluent areas (23%) are the least likely to vote ‘Yes’.
Christopher McLean, Senior Research Executive with Ipsos MORI Scotland, said: “Now that the process for the referendum has been agreed and the real debate can begin, this poll highlights the considerable challenges facing the ‘Yes’ campaign. At the turn of the year, support for independence was increasing and touching 40%.
“That momentum appears to have been lost and the level of support for independence has returned to its historical average. On the other hand, although the ‘Better Together’ campaign has a healthy lead, the poll shows that they cannot afford to be complacent, particularly given that more than one in ten Scots remain undecided.”
Party support
Support is also falling for the SNP at Holyrood after last year’s landslide election triumph. Labour has narrowed the gap to five points, with the Nationalists on 40% among those certain to vote, down five points since June. Labour sits on 35%, an increase of three points over the same period. This represents a ten-point swing in favour of Labour since the otrganisation’s last poll in December 2011.
The Conservatives remain in third place on 13%, up one point from June, with the Liberal Democrats in fourth on 8%, up two points since June.
SNP reaction
SNP Deputy leader Nicola Sturgeon said that the results show that Alex Salmond remains “far and away “ the most popular leader in the UK, with Ed Miliband, Nick Clegg and David Cameron all having negative ratings
She added: “By spelling out over the next two years how an independent Scotland will flourish – and that the alternative is to have the achievements of home rule such as free personal care and no tuition fees rolled back – I believe that we will turn this potential majority into a Yes majority in 2014.
“It is also fantastic to see the SNP retain a strong opinion poll lead after over 5 years in government.”